Israel Resource Review |
31st January, 2003 |
Contents:
Ariel Sharon, Amram Mitzne and
Yose Beillin won the Israeli Election
Natan Scharansky, Yose Sarid
and the Oslo Process Lost in this Election
David Bedein
There were multiple winners of the Israeli
elections and there were multiple losers of the Israeli
elections.
The winners were Ariel Sharon, Amram Mitzne and Yose Beillin.
Sharon wanted to double the strength of the Likud in the Knesset. He did
just that - from 19 to 38 so that he could lead the country into
either war or peace with a clear mandate to lead.
Mitzne wanted to lead a small, compact Labor Party based on a new concept
for the negotiation process: Unilateral Withdrawal and Surrender of
Territory, instead of abiding by the reciprocity principles of the Oslo
process, in coordination with the western nations Mitzne has an
assortment of MK's with strong international connections,
beginning with Shimon Peres.
Yuli Tamir, the titular head of Peace Now, which succeeded
in raising more than $2.2 million per annum from abroad and which has
recently launched a campaign in the US to demand that US aid to Israel be
predicated on Israeli dismantling of Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria.
Katif and the Golan, and that US AID funds be deducted for
any and all expenses incurred in "settlement activity".
See the website of
Americans for Peace Now for further info on that campaign.
Rav Michael Melchior, who as the chief Rabbi of Norway maintains contacts
with Scandanavian governments that continue to pour funds into Israeli
peace groups. Michael's father, Rav Bent Melchior, in Denmark, has joined Herbert Pundak's efforts in Denmark to fund TAYOUSH, and organization that works towards the unilateral withdrawal of Israel from beyond the 1949/67 lines. Herbert Pundak is the father of Ron Pundak, the head of the Shimon Peres Center for Peace. As the head of the Israel government commission on anti-semitism, Melchior established useful international connections with all Jewish organizations.
Yitzhak Herzog, the Barak cabinet secretary who was the legal counsel to
the Peres Center and who in the past raised funds through the Kahanoff and
Evergreen Foundations in Canada, both of which are connected to his cousin, Shira Herzog Working with Tamir, Melchior, and Herzog, Mitzne can work with Peres to raise a war chest for the next election campaign. which can also finance effective work with the media.
Yose Beillin is the other winner of this campaign. He maneuvered his way
out of a Knesset seat by accepting an unrealistic position in
Meretz and will now be able to organize his EU-funded operation
without any pretenses of accountability to the Israeli
electorate.
The losers of this campaign are Natan Scharansky, Yose Sarid and the Oslo
process:
Scharansky tried to be all things to all people. He played hard line while
his record at the Wye conference in October 1998 showed that he was part
of the Israeli negotiating team that unliterally sacrificed much of Israel's sovereignty to the US. He appealed to religious audiences while at the same time ran a political party that endorsed opening of businesses and public transportation on Shabbat. Meanwhile, he asked the government of Israel to recognize Jewish status of non-Jews.
Sarid became obsolete, parroting slogans of the Oslo process that no
longer had any meaning, while his sardonic attacks on Israel's religious
community were overshadowed by the direct attacks of years to come.
The Oslo Process died in these elections. The 12 MK's of
Meretz and the 44 MK's of Labor (1992-1996) had proven to be a
winning formula for Rabin. These two parties now constitute only
25 MK's, less than half of what it took to advance the Oslo
process accords of 1993-1995.
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Sharon's Associates:
There is
no Such Thing as a "Right Wing Government"
Ben Caspit
Correspondent, Maariv
The first phone call was from his son, Gilad.
Ariel Sharon spoke gently, occasionally laughing. Gilad phoned
from the farm, immediately after the television polls, to his
father sitting in the security cabinet room in the Prime
Minister's Bureau in Tel Aviv. The second call was less
expected: Amram Mitzna was on the line.
Just then Sharon was watching Barak being interviewed with a serious face,
talking about the bad fall the party had taken.
Here he had a problem. Mitzna on the phone, Barak on television.
Sharon tried to handle both, but couldn't. He asked to tone Barak down, so
he could hear Mitzna. They set up a meeting, even though Mitzna made it
clear: "I have no intention of joining your government, I am committed to
my positions".
Then Shaul Mofaz called. Sharon cordially informed Mofaz (making sure
others in the room could hear): "You were and will continue to be the
defense minister of the Jewish people".
The next to phone was Binyamin Netanyahu. Afterwards, of course, Shimon
Peres. And so it went, on and on. A parade of phone calls and
congratulations. [ . . . ]
On the night of victory, on the sweaty victors' stage, Sharon's tension
dissipated and became a great victory swell.
A close observation can reveal some of them most intriguing mysteries of today's politics. For example, who will be a minister in his next government.
Most of the compliments went to Ehud Olmert. Sharon went out of his way
to thank his election campaign chairman. The next day Sharon phoned Olmert
again. The Jerusalem mayor's position in the next government seems more
assured than ever. Even Limor Livnat received a warm thank-you. So did
the strategic advisers (Adler, Arad, Horev). Arthur Finkelstein, who phoned
from the US, said he was pleased. [ . . . ]
Now Sharon faces a truly difficult task. To form a government that is
not a right wing government. "There is no such animal, there is no right
wing government, there is no such option", Sharon's associates say. The
prime minister himself emphasizes to his close associates that no such
option exists. He has no intention, under any circumstances, to bring
Avigdor Lieberman into the coalition.
Lieberman, incidentally, is aware of this and is considering what to do.
One option is to leave political life in the next few weeks. Sharon won't
mourn. "I will not be put under the pressure of extremists, not from the
Right and not from the Left", Sharon says. "There are many options and
possibilities without being captive to the extremists. The media
exaggerates its assessments when it says it will be difficult for me to
form a working government".
The prime minister is aware of the Labor Party's decision not to join
his government. He is pinning most of his hopes on Shimon Peres. Sharon's
people are beginning to put out feelers and apply pressure, mainly among
Peres' circle. Peres tells his associates that there is something to talk
about. He is vague about this message to the media.
Sharon's people are now putting together a hefty "package of
enticements" directed at Peres, in the hope that he will be first to pick
up the gauntlet. [ . . . ]
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Palestinian Arab Reaction to
the Israeli Elections
Roni Shaked
Arab Affairs Correspondent, Yediot Aharonot
Palestinians: "Now we will continue the intifada"
The Palestinian Arabs were dealt a serious disappointment this
week. Their efforts to affect the Israeli political map failed
once again.
In the past months they openly supported Amram Mitzna. "Since Rabin's murder there has not been a leader as courageous as he. If he is elected, there will be a peace agreement within a year," said Mohammed Dahlan, Arafat's security adviser.
Even Arafat, in his convoluted way, tried to exercise influence. Just
under a month before the elections he called for a cease-fire on the
Palestinian side in order to help Labor in the election campaign, and
mostly to get rid of Sharon, "the last bullet in the barrel of the Israeli
rifle."
This, perhaps, is the reason that the blow was so crushing. Not only
was Sharon not vanquished, but the Palestinians and their terror policy
played no small part in bringing about the sweeping victory of Sharon and
the right-wing bloc as a whole, and the collapse of the Israeli left-wing
camp.
"Once more we are stuck, and the situation will lead to more terror,"
said sources in the security establishment the morning after the election.
This assessment is based not only on impressions and analyses of the
situation, but on intelligence warnings that the Palestinians are about to
begin a new wave of terror.
The Palestinians do not need a new reason to continue terrorism, but the
defeat of the peace camp, which leaves them without friends and without
hope of a renewed peace process, challenges them to carry out a terror
attack in Israel, in order to "send a message" to Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon. There would be other bonuses to such an attack: Firstly, an attack
close to elections would embarrass the prime minister and prove that his
promises to bring security, calm, and quiet, are baseless. The
Palestinians also believe that attacks inside the territories will be met
with less international criticism if Israel is ruled by a right-wing
government that supports settlers and continues a policy of force rather
than entering negotiations.
"The elections did not open a road to hope, we are going in the
direction of fire," said Dahlan the day after the election. "Our
situation, yours and ours, will be much worse." Hussein a-Sheikh, Fatah
secretary in the West Bank, said, "The Israeli people have not understood
that the policy of force will not bring security, and elected Sharon yet
again. We have no choice but to continue the Intifada." Hamas and Islamic
Jihad spoke in a less moderate tone. Dr. Abd el-Aziz Rantisi, a Hamas
leader, promised, "The new government will strengthen the path of jihad and
warfare."
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Lapid:
In an Emergency Government,
We'll Sit With Haredim
Mazal Mualem
Correspondent, HaAretz
Shinui Chairman MK Tommy Lapid will meet with Labor Party Chairman Amram Mitzna, who phoned him yesterday and asked to speak to him about the election results. Lapid said at the opening of the first faction meeting held with all 15 Shinui MKs that Shinui does not plan to retreat from its coalition demands and called on Mitzna to display flexibility.
Lapid said, "Mr. Mitzna is the one who has blocked his party and after the Labor Party's defeat, a way has to be found to rescue it from paralysis. It is important that Labor be part of the coalition because it is still very relevant.
Lapid believes that the Labor Party will eventually join the coalition. He based this, among other reasons, on what Shimon Peres said--that the path is what is important.
It appears that Shinui has adopted the tactic of putting persistent
psychological pressure on Labor, by means of a determined stand by the
entire faction, and at a later stage it will even take public steps, like
having thousands of Shinui supporters demonstrate opposite Labor Party
headquarters.
However, Lapid also said that in the case of war, Shinui would be
willing to join a national emergency government even with Haredim:
"We will sit in the government from the first missile to the last missile. We will not use the war as an excuse. If there is a war and the prime minister asks us, we will consent".
As to a coalition partnership with UTJ (Agudat Yisrael), Lapid said that this is possible because UTJ does not sit in the government, but
is only a coalition partner.
Lapid's remarks were backed up by all the faction members. However, MK
Avraham Poraz, number two in Shinui, made remarks implying that Shinui was
likely to find itself in a unity government even without the Labor Party.
He said, "The Likud must make Labor a very tempting offer . . . but I want to
make it clear that the keys to Shinui's office are not in the same place as
the keys to the Labor Party. We are not Labor Party marionettes, we want
the Labor Party very much, we will lie on the fence for it and will even
give up on jobs and positions for it".
However, the possibility is being considered that despite Shinui's strength, it will find itself in the opposition.
Poraz told the new MKs: "There is a chance that in the end, we will sit
in the opposition; that is where a new MK in particular can stand out
prominently. Tommy and I will perhaps be more upset".
MK Yossi Paritzky said, "They can get along without us. Our path is completely contrary to that of Shas and the prime minister has to make an ideological decision and decide which of us he wants. We want a real upheaval in matters of state and religion".
MK Yehudit Naot adopted the same line: "How can we sit together with
Haredim if they are in favor of the Large Families Law? How can we revoke
the Tal Law in this government? There is a consensus in Shinui. We have an
agenda, we do not plan to fall apart the way Dash did. We are here for the
long term . . . It's been said about us that we are Tommy's dwarves. I want
to make it clear that this faction has members with independent opinions,
it's a very opinionated faction, and we'll prove this. It's true that
Tommy is the undisputed leader, but he is surrounded by an independent and
eloquent group of people".
Shinui has not yet set up a coalition negotiating team and has decided
to wait and see who will be on the Likud negotiating team. [ . . . ]. Yesterday
the faction met in Tel Aviv. [ . . . ]. Lapid presented Shinui's conditions and
was given sweeping support. Everyone agreed that Shinui must not betray
its promises, because this is the source of its strength. [ . . . ]
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