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Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (28): 75.8% Reconciliation impossible this generation even if Palestinians get all they want
00 )From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months? 8.6% 1) Al Arabia 54.8% 2) Al Jazeera 0.2% 3) Al Hurra 4.2% 4) Al Manar 8.9% 5) Palestine TV 12.1% 6) Al-Aqsa TV 6.5% 7) Do not watch TV 2.4% 8) Others 2.2% 9) Do not have a dish 0.1% 9) No Opinion/Don't know 01)Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA? 6.7% 1) Very satisfied 39.0% 2) Satisfied 35.7% 3) Not satisfied 15.7% 4) not satisfied at all 3.0% 5) DK/NA 02)If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for? 52.1% 1) Mahmoud Abbas 39.5% 2) Ismael Haneyyeh 8.4% 3 DK/NA 03)And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismael Haneyyeh representing Hams, whom would you vote for? 60.8% 1) Marwan Barghouti 34.3% 2) Ismael Haneyyeh 4.9% 3) No Opinion/ Don't know 05)If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote? 1.0% 1) alternative 2.1% 2) independent Palestine 4.1% 3) Abu Ali Mustafa 0.6% 4) Abu al Abbas 5) Freedom and Social Justice 31.0% 6) change and reform 0.3% 7) national coalition for justice and democracy 0.6% 8) third way 0.5% 9) freedom and independence 0.1% 10) Palestinian justice 43.4% 11) Fateh 16.4% 12) none of the above/ DK/NA 06)Hamas carried out a military step in mid June against security headquarters belonging to the PA in the Gaza Strip and succeeded after that in controlling the Strip. Do you approve or disapprove of what Hamas did? 5.7% 1) Strongly approve 19.0% 2) Approve 48.6% 3) Disapprove 21.8% 4) Strongly disapprove 4.9% 5) DK/NA 07)President Mahmud Abbas dismissed the government of Ismail Haniyeh after the Gaza events about three months ago. But the prime minister of the dismissed government remained in his position in the Gaza Strip. Do you approve or disapprove of his decision to stay in his position? 7.9% 1) Strongly approve 37.4% 2) Approve 36.2% 3) Disapprove 11.2% 4) Strongly disapprove 7.4% 5) DK/NA 08)Moreover, President Abbas appointed an emergency government headed by Salam Fayyad. After the ending of the emergency period and due to the inability of the PLC to convene, the government of Fayyad became a care taker one. Do you approve or disapprove of the continued functioning of this government? 3.8% 1) Strongly approve 37.8% 2) Approve 40.9% 3) Disapprove 10.4% 4) Strongly disapprove 7.1% 5) DK/NA 09)After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad? 29.4% 1) Haniyehs' government is the legitimate one 31.0% 2) Abu Mazin's and Fayyad government is the legitimate one 7.1% 3) Both governments are legitimate 28.0% 4) Both governments are not legitimate 4.5% 5) DK/NA 10)Fateh and Hamas and the two authorities in Gaza and the West Bank are currently engaged in a competition to win public support and confidence through the use of media such as Palestine TV and al Aqsa TV stations. When you hear news from the two sides, which side you trust more, the news spread by Hamas and Haniyeh's government or the news spread by Fateh and the Abu Mazin's and Fayyad's government? 22.7% 1) Trust Hamas and Haniyeh's government 19.8% 2) Trust Fateh and Abu Mazin's and Salam's governemtn 3.9% 3) Trust both sides 49.1% 4) Trust neither side 4.5% 5) DK/NA 11)In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days? 0.8% 1) Very good 3.7% 2) Good 7.9% 3) So so 32.6% 4) Bad 53.8% 5) Very bad 1.2% 6) DK/NA 12)In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days? 3.1% 1) Very good 21.8% 2) Good 27.3% 3) So so 28.8% 4) Bad 16.8% 5) Very bad 2.3% 6) DK/NA 13)Generally, do you see yourself as: 47.0% 1) Religious 49.6% 2) Somewhat religious 3.2% 3) Not religious 0.2% 4) DK/NA 14)Generally, do you see yourself as: 71.1% 1) Supportive of the peace process 13.7% 2) Opposed to the peace process 14.4% 3) Between support and opposition 0.8% 4) DK/NA 15)Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin? 76.9% 1) Yes 14.3% 2) No 8.9% 3) DK/NA 16)If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future? 47.2% 1) Will increase 13.0% 2) Will remain as it is 30.5% 3) will decrease 9.3% 4) DK/NA 17)Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured? 5.4% 1) Completely assured 38.0% 2) Assured 44.9% 3) Not assured 11.3% 4) Not assured at all 0.5% 5) DK/NA 18)How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is: 4.0% 1) Very good 29.0% 2) Good 23.1% 3) neither bad nor good 26.9% 4) Bad 14.5% 5) Very bad 2.6% 6) DK/NA 19)How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is: 3.7% 1) Very good 19.1% 2) Good 15.4% 3) Fair 31.5% 4) Bad 22.9% 5) Very bad 7.3% 6) DK/NA 20)Few months ago, news emerged that mobile phones were smuggled from Jordan into the Palestinian territories in the car of the former speaker of the parliament Rouhi Fattouh. News were also reported about the arrest of the driver for investigation while Fattouh announced his innocence and resigned from his work in the president office. Do you believe the PA handling of this episode demonstrates success on fighting corruption or success in covering up corruption? 16.9% 1) certainly covering up corruption 41.9% 2) covering up corruption 25.2% 3) fighting corruption 2.7% 4) certainly fighting corruption 13.2% 5) DK/NO 21)As an exit strategy for the current crisis between Fateh and Hamas and the split of authority, Hamas's position is to call for an unconditional dialogue with Abu Mazin based on the current status quo. Abu Mazin's and Fateh's position is that he would agree to such a dialogue but under one condition; Hamas must first transfer control of the PA Gaza headquarters to him and return to the status quo ante. Which of the two positions is closer to your view? 32.7% 1) Hamas's position 37.1% 2) Abu Mazin's and Fateh's position 27.7% 3) I disagree with both positions 2.6% 4) DK/NA 22)Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad? 8.8% 1) Very Good 27.7% 2) Good 21.7% 3) Neither good nor bad 25.9% 4) Bad 9.4% 5) Very Bad 6.5% 6) No Opinion/Don't know 23)Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad? 3.9% 1) Very Good 29.3% 2) Good 22.3% 3) Neither good nor bad 26.0% 4) Bad 11.9% 5) Very Bad 6.5% 6) No Opinion/Don't know 24) Who, in your views, is responsible for the continued split in the PA between Gaza and the West Bank? Fateh or Hamas? 17.3% 1) Hamas 16.5% 2) Fateh 56.0% 3) Both of them 3.5% 4) No one 4.1% 5) Other 2.6% 6) No Opinion/ Don't know 25)The Palestinian Authority carried out a deployment of its security forces in some cities and districts. In your views, did it succeed or fail in enforcing law and order in the areas of deployment? 25.8% 1) succeeded 30.9% 2) somewhat succeeded 34.3% 3) failed 9.0% 4) DK/NA 26) The Palestinian Authority says that the purpose of the security deployment is to enforce law and order while other Palestinian groups say one of the purposes is to disarm the resistance groups. What in your views is the purpose of the deployment? 34.8% 1) enforce law and order 28.4% 2) disarm resistance groups 22.7% 3) both of the above 7.5% 4) none of the above 6.7% 5) DK/NA 27)In your view who is more able to reach a peace agreement with Israel, the Palestinian Authority under president Mahmud Abbas or a Hamas government headed by Ismail Haniyeh? 14.6% 1) a Hamas government headed by Haniyeh 48.9% 2) PA under Abbas 8.1% 3) both equally 25.3% 4) none of them 3.2% 5) DK/NA 28)In your view who is more able to force Israel to make more concession to the Palestinians, a government of Hamas headed by Haniyeh or the PA under Abbas? 41.3% 1) PA under Abbas 24.9% 2) Hamas government headed by Haniyeh 6.9% 3) both equally 24.0% 4) none of them 2.8% 5) DK/NA 29)If the choice was between negotiations conducted by president Mahmud Abbas and negotiations conducted by Marwan Barghouti, who in your view is more able to force Israel to make more concessions, Abbas or Barghouti? 30.6% 1) Abbas 28.1% 2) Barghouti 11.2% 3) both equally 24.6% 4) none of them 5.4% 5) DK/NA 30)If Israel agrees to conduct peace negotiations with a Hamas, do you think the Hamas should or should not negotiate with Israel? 16.9% 1) certainly it should negotiate 42.7% 2) it should negotiate 26.4% 3) it should not negotiate 9.0% 4) certainly it should not negotiate 5.0% 5) DK/NA 31)There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal? 7.4% 1) Definitely agree 48.4% 2) agree 33.6% 3) disagree 9.6% 4) definitely disagree 0.9% 5) DK/NA 32)And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process? 52.2% 1) Majority supports 39.5% 2) Majority opposes 8.3% 3) DK/NA 33)And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process? 41.0% 1) Majority supports 50.1% 2) Majority opposes 8.8% 5) DK/NA 34)Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent? 31.6% 1) None existent 34.7% 2) Low 27.0% 3) Medium 3.0% 4) High 3.7% 5) DK/NA 35) According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resoved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations. Do you agree or disagree to this plan? 7.5% 1) Certainly agree 59.5% 2) agree 22.4% 3) disagree 6.0% 4) Certainly disagree 4.6% 5) DK/NA 36)The US, Russia, the European Community and the UN, the so called "Quartet", have put forward a "Roadmap" for the implementation of a final settlement within 3 years. The plan includes political reforms in the Palestinian Authority, including a constitution and election of a strong Prime Minister, stopping the incitement and violence on both sides under the Quartet's supervision, a freeze on settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian State within provisional borders. The next phase will see negotiations on the final borders under the auspices of an international conference. Do you support or oppose this initiative? 2.8% 1) Strongly support 46.7% 2) Support 37.1% 3) Oppose 9.8% 4) Strongly oppose 3.5% 5) Don't know/No answer 37B)When Palestinians and Israelis return to final status negotiations the following items might be presented to negotiators as the elements of a permanent compromise settlement. Tell us what you think of each item then tell us what you think of all combined as one permanent status settlement 1. An Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of its settlements. But in the West Bank, Israel withdraws and evacuates settlements from most of it, with the exception of few settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be exchanged with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with the attached map {show map}. 2. An independent Palestinian state would be established in the areas from which Israel withdraws in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the Palestinian state will have no army, but it will have a strong security force but an international multinational force would be deployed to insure the safety and security of the state. Both sides will be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. 3. East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israel sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that will come under Israeli sovereignty. 4. With regard to the refugee question, both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242 and on the Arab peace initiative. The refugees will be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of the states in those areas. The number of refugees returning to Israel will be based on the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees will be entitled to compensation for their "refugeehood" and loss of properties. 5. When the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples 6. The Palestinian state will have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace. But Israeli will be allowed to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and will maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. The multinational force will remain in the Palestinian state for an indefinite period of time and its responsibility will be to insure the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including its international border crossings. Now that you have been informed of each element of the permanent compromise settlement, tell us what you think of each of its item. Do you agree or disagree with it. 37-1B)Item #1: withdrawal to 1967 borders with territorial swap 5.6% 1) Strongly agree 57.1% 2) Agree 25.5% 3) Disagree 9.4% 4) Strongly Disagree 2.3% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-2B)Item #2: a state without an army but with international forces 1.4% 1) Strongly agree 26.5% 2) Agree 54.3% 3) Disagree 16.4% 4) Strongly Disagree 1.4% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-3B)Item #3: East Jerusalem as capital of the state of Palestine after it is divided 1.0% 1) Strongly agree 36.9% 2) Agree 44.5% 3) Disagree 16.4% 4) Strongly Disagree 1.1% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-4B)Item #4: refugees with five options for permanent residence 1.7% 1) Strongly agree 39.3% 2) Agree 41.8% 3) Disagree 14.7% 4) Strongly Disagree 2.4% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-5B)Item #5: end of conflict 5.2% 1) Strongly agree 50.3% 2) Agree 31.7% 3) Disagree 11.1% 4) Strongly Disagree 1.8% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-6B)Item #6: a sovereign state with security arrangements 2.3% 1) Strongly agree 35.5% 2) Agree 45.3% 3) Disagree 14.9% 4) Strongly Disagree 2.0% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 37-7B)Item #7: the combined elements as one permanent status settlement 1.5% 1) Strongly agree 44.2% 2) Agree 38.8% 3) Disagree 13.5% 4) Strongly Disagree 2.0% 5) No Opinion /Don't Know 38-1B)And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose this combined final status package? 49.4% 1) Majority supports 40.7% 2) Majority opposes 9.9% 3) DK/NA 38-2B)And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this combined package for a permanent status settlement? Do most Israelis support or oppose this combined final status package? 36.8% 1) Majority supports 50.5% 2) Majority opposes 12.7% 3) DK/NA 39) If a peace agreement is reached, and a Palestinian state is established and recognized by Israel, would you support or oppose the efforts to reach full reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinian state? 9.4% 1) Would strongly support 63.1% 2) Would support 20.5% 3) Would oppose 5.8% 4) Would strongly oppose 1.2% 5) DK/NA 40) And what are your expectations regarding the chances for the success or failure of the negotiations launched by Annapolis conference? Will it succeed or fail in ending Israeli occupation? 0.7% 1) certainly will succeed 15.6% 2) will succeed 51.0% 3) will fail 25.0% 4) certainly will fail 7.7% 5) DK/NA 41) The joint statement issued by the Annapolis conference stated that the two sides will seek to conclude the permanent status negotiations before the end of 2008. Do you think they will indeed succeed in achieving that on the period indicated? 0.5% 1) certainly will succeed 14.4% 2) will succeed 53.8% 3) will not succeed 25.6% 4) certainly will not succeed 5.7% 5) DK/NA 42)In your view, is it possible or impossible these days to reach a compromise permanent status agreement with the Olmert government? 0.7% 1) Certainly possible 21.5% 2) Possible 47.5% 3) Impossible 27.6% 4) Certainly impossible 2.7% 5) DK/NA 43)With regard to meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmud Abbas, do you see them beneficial and should be continued or do you see them unbeneficial and should be stopped? 27.0% 1) Beneficial, and should continue 68.4% 2) Unbeneficial and should stop 4.6% 3) NO/DK 44)How soon do you think will a political settlement between Israel and the Palestinians be achieved? 42.0% 1) A political settlement is not possible ever 21.9% 2) Only in many generations to come 8.9% 3) Only in the next generation 5.8% 4) Only in the next decade 15.6% 5) Only in the next few years 5.8% 6) No Opinion /Don't know 45)After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by Israel, how soon do you think will reconciliation between the two peoples be achieved? 42.9% 1) Reconciliation is not possible ever 20.5% 2) Only in many generations to come 12.4% 3) Only in the next generation 6.3% 4) Only in the next decade 11.4% 5) On the next few years 6.5% 6) No Opinion /Don't know 46)There is a talk about conducting Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on an interim settlement whereby a Palestinian state is established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while other issues, such as refugees, would be postponed. Other people prefer negotiations that would lead to a comprehensive settlement that would lead to permanent peace and end of conflict with all issues, including refugees, resolved. Which of the two positions do you prefer: the interim settlement or the comprehensive one? 2.3% 1) definitely the interim 12.9% 2) the interim 60.2% 3) the comprehensive 20.4% 4) definitely the comprehensive 4.1% 5) DK/NA 47)Some people think that a solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel, known as the two-state solution, is difficult to achieve and that Palestinians should struggle for another solution, one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. In your view, which of the two solutions is more difficult to achieve? 35.7% 1) two-state solution 37.5% 2) the one-state solution 24.8% 3) both equally difficult 1.9% 4) DK/NA 48)Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support? 57.6% 1) the two-state solution 27.0% 2) the one-state solution 10.4% 3) another solution (specify -------- ) 5.1% 4) DK/NA 49)Do you support or oppose the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip against towns and cities inside Israel, such as Sderot and Ashkelon? 17.3% 1) Certainly support 39.9% 2) Support 33.0% 3) Oppose 6.5% 4) Certainly oppose 3.2% 5) NA/DK 50)Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I. 15.9% 1) Strongly support 38.9% 2) Support 37.2% 3) Oppose 4.5% 4) Strongly oppose 3.4% 5) DK/NA 51) Hamas is currently negotiation with Israel via Egypt to conclude a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or oppose a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip? 13.9% 1) certainly support 63.7% 2) support 18.2% 3) oppose 3.0% 4) certainly oppose 1.2% 5) DK/NA 52_1)If the ceasefire is restricted to the Gaza Strip, and does not cover the West Bank, would you support or oppose it? 2.1% 1) certainly support 20.7% 2) support 64.9% 3) oppose 10.6% 4) certainly oppose 1.7% 5) DK/NA 52_2)What if the ceasefire did not stipulate an immediate opening of the crossings, especially the Rafah crossing to Egypt, would you in this case support or oppose it? 2.2% 1) certainly support 17.6% 2) support 64.7% 3) oppose 13.9% 4) certainly oppose 1.7% 5) DK/NA 53)There is talk of indirect Israeli-Syrian negotiations. If significant progress is made in these negotiations or if a peace agreement is reached between the two countries, do you think such a development would represent an impediment to the success of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, would contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, or would have no impact? 31.8% 1) will contribute to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations 25.8% 2) will represent an impediment to successful Palestinian-Israeli negotiations 34.6% 3) will have no impact on Palestinian-Israeli negotiations 7.7% 4) DK/NA 54)What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis, if indeed a cease fire agreement is achieved with Hamas? 19.9% 1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop 39.5% 2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue 34.9% 3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations 5.8% 4) DK/NA 55)Last month, Hezbollah took control of West Beirut by force and said that its action was aiming at protecting the arms of the resistance. In your view, was the action of Hezbollah a legitimate or illegitimate use of arms of the resistance? 21.3% 1) certainly a legitimate use 30.7% 2) a legitimate use 28.3% 3) illegitimate use 8.0% 4) certainly illegitimate use 11.6% 5) DK/NA 56)Despite the Doha agreement between the Lebanese factions, some people are concerned that developments in Lebanon could take a turn toward a return to civil war, this time between Sunnites and Shiites. Do you expect or do not expect such a development toward civil war in the future? 8.9% 1) certainly, a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take place 36.0% 2) a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take place 37.7% 3) a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will take not take place 6.3% 4) certainly, a civil war between Sunnites and Shiites will not take place 11.0% 5) DK/NA 57)If such a civil war takes place, who in your view will win it: the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future Trend or the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement? 36.9% 1) Shiites 18.1% 2) Sunnites 29.1% 3) neither one 15.9% 4) DK/NA 58)If such a civil war takes place, which side would you support: the Shiites under the leadership of Hezbollah and Amal movement or the Sunnites under the leadership of the Future Trend? 21.2% 1) Shiites 34.1% 2) Sunnites 35.1% 3) neither one 9.6% 4) DK/NA 59)Which of the following political parties do you support? 0.2% 1) PPP 4.0% 2) PFLP 32.3% 3) Fateh 21.7% 4) Hamas 0.6% 5) DFLP 1.6% 6) Islamic Jihad 0.1% 7)Fida 0.5% 8) National Initiative (Mubadara) 3.1% 9) Independent Islamists 3.7% 10) Independent Nationalists 31.5% 11) None of the above 0.6% 12) Other, specify
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