• Syria: New Missile Deployment on the Border by David Bedein
• Syria Deploys Thousands Of Missiles Near Israel by David Bedein
• Commentary: Abbas's Assurances to Olmert . . . by Arlene Kushner

Syria: New Missile Deployment on the Border
David Bedein

"The Syrians have been very cautious and acted very quietly, but there is a new situation along their southern border," an official said. "We have been asking UNIFIL [United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon] to become involved."

The Syrian deployment was disclosed as defense ministers from Iran and Syria met in Damascus over the weekend. The state-owned media in Iran and Syria said the talks were meant to expand defense and military relations, including joint weapons production, and accelerate existing agreements.

"We are discussing with the Syrian side a host of matters including the transfer of weapons manufacturing technology and training," Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Najar said on Saturday. "We are also discussing defense issues and political matters. We believe that Iran's defense capabilities are at the disposal of Syria."

Israeli officials said the number of rockets moved toward Israel was estimated at between 1,000 and 3,000. They said the weapons included 220 mm rockets, with a range of 43 miles, and 302 mm projectiles, with a range of 56 miles. The latter would be well within range of the main population centers in northern Israel, such as Tiberias and Kiryat Shmona. Both classes of rockets were fired by Hezbollah during the 34-day war in mid-2006.

The rockets and missiles were said to have been deployed along the Lebanese-Syrian border near Israel. Other Syrian weapons were stationed in the Syrian-controlled Golan Heights.

Officials said the deployment began with the stationing of Iranian and Syrian weapons in the Bekaa Valley. They said the Syrian military, with help from Iran and Hezbollah, deployed extended-range Katyusha-class rockets in bunkers and camouflaged positions.

Many of the rockets were also believed to have been transported across the border into Lebanon. Officials said Hezbollah has been storing the weapons in huge underground bunkers.

"We are seeing serious preparations for a war by Syria and Hezbollah,with massive help from Iran," a military source said.

Israeli intelligence issued an official statement that there was no evidence of Syrian troops on the border. Israeli intelligence did deny, however, that there is massive new presence of missiles deployed on the Syrian border.

Bio Warfare From Syria Expected

The Middle East NewsLine, reporting from Washington, has confirmed from sources in the U.S. intelligence community that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad was developing an infrastructure for biological weapons production. Officials said Assad has advanced the BW program through help from China and North Korea.

"Syria's biotechnical infrastructure is capable of supporting limited biological agent development," Defense Intelligence Agency Director

Michael Maples said. "DIA assesses Syria has a program to develop select biological agents."

Maples said Syria has sought to install biological and chemical warheads on its missile arsenal. He said the programs were meant to deter Israel's conventional force superiority.

"Syria has had a chemical weapons program for many years and already has a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin, which can be delivered by aircraft or ballistic missiles," Maples said.

U.S. officials said Syria has obtained missile assistance from China, Iran and North Korea. They said Damascus has strengthened ties with Tehran and regards it as a strategic asset.

The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Syria did not conclude major weapons deals in 2006. Instead, Syria conducted minor improvements to its conventional forces and purchased anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles from Russia.

"The Syrian military has focused its limited defense procurement dollars on low cost-high impact weapons such as anti-tank guided missiles, advanced tactical surface-to-air missiles like the SA-24, and upgrades to existing platforms," Maples said.

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Syria Deploys Thousands Of Missiles Near Israel
David Bedein

Israeli officials said Syria has brought a range of medium- and long-range rockets that could strike northern and central Israel. They said the transfer of rockets and missiles from Syrian military bases began in September 2006.

"The Syrians have been very cautious and acted very quietly, but there is a new situation along their southern border," an official said. "We have been asking UNIFIL [United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon] to become involved." The Syrian deployment was disclosed as defense ministers from Iran and Syria met in Damascus over the weekend. The state-owned media in Iran and Syria said the talks were meant to expand defense and military relations, including joint weapons production, and accelerate existing agreements.

"We are discussing with the Syrian side a host of matters including the transfer of weapons manufacturing technology and training," Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Najar said on Saturday. "We are also discussing defense issues and political matters. We believe that Iran's defense capabilities are at the disposal of Syria."

Israeli officials said the number of rockets moved toward Israel was estimated at between 1,000 and 3,000. They said the weapons included 220 mm rockets, with a range of 43 miles, and 302 mm projectiles, with a range of 56 miles. The latter would be well within range of the main population centers in northern Israel, such as Tiberias and Kiryat Shmona. Both classes of rockets were fired by Hezbollah during the 34-day war in mid-2006.

The rockets and missiles were said to have been deployed along the Lebanese-Syrian border near Israel. Other Syrian weapons were stationed in the Syrian-controlled Golan Heights.

Officials said the deployment began with the stationing of Iranian and Syrian weapons in the Bekaa Valley. They said the Syrian military, with help from Iran and Hezbollah, deployed extended-range Katyusha-class rockets in bunkers and camouflaged positions.

Many of the rockets were also believed to have been transported across the border into Lebanon. Officials said Hezbollah has been storing the weapons in huge underground bunkers.

"We are seeing serious preparations for a war by Syria and Hezbollah,with massive help from Iran," a military source said.

Israeli intelligence issued an official statement that there was no evidence of Syrian troops on the border. Israeli intelligence did deny, however, that there is massive new presence of missiles deployed on the Syrian border.

Bio Warfare From Syria Expected

The Middle East NewsLine, reporting from Washington, has confirmed from sources in the U.S. intelligence community that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad was developing an infrastructure for biological weapons production. Officials said Assad has advanced the BW program through help from China and North Korea.

"Syria's biotechnical infrastructure is capable of supporting limited biological agent development," Defense Intelligence Agency Director Michael Maples said. "DIA assesses Syria has a program to develop select biological agents."

Maples said Syria has sought to install biological and chemical warheads on its missile arsenal. He said the programs were meant to deter Israel's conventional force superiority.

"Syria has had a chemical weapons program for many years and already has a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin, which can be delivered by aircraft or ballistic missiles," Maples said.

U.S. officials said Syria has obtained missile assistance from China, Iran and North Korea. They said Damascus has strengthened ties with Tehran and regards it as a strategic asset.

The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Syria did not conclude major weapons deals in 2006. Instead, Syria conducted minor improvements to its conventional forces and purchased anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles from Russia.

"The Syrian military has focused its limited defense procurement dollars on low cost-high impact weapons such as anti-tank guided missiles, advanced tactical surface-to-air missiles like the SA-24, and upgrades to existing platforms," Maples said.

Israel To Request Increased American Military Aid

This week, as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference in Washington convenes, Israel has submitted a plan for a major increase in military aid from the United States.

The Israeli government has drafted a 10-year plan for American military aid to Israel under the U.S. Foreign Military Funding program. Under the plan, U.S. military assistance would increase from the current level of less than $2.5 billion to nearly $3 billion by 2017.

"These talks reflect the need for U.S. strategic aid to Israel to face a combination of threats, particularly in the area of conventional warfare and missile defense," an official said.

Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz was in the United States this past week. Peretz, accompanied by Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, urged a long-range U.S. military assistance plan that would match Israel's goal for a multi-year defense budget.

Under the proposal, the United States would increase military aid to Israel by $60 million per year. The aid package, which requires approval by Congress, would assure a rise in U.S. military assistance from nearly $2.4 billion to about $3 billion.

During this coming year, the United States was scheduled to end all economic aid to Israel while continuing military aid. The arrangement reached in 1998 stipulated a decrease in economic assistance with a concurrent rise in U.S. military aid.

The Israeli proposal does not include funding for joint Israeli-U.S. defense programs. The largest of them is the Arrow-2 missile defense program, mostly financed by the United States since 1988. Israel also receives funding for the development of counter-insurgency technologies and systems.

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Commentary: Abbas's Assurances to Olmert . . .
Arlene Kushner

But what a difference a day makes. Today Hamas is saying that the release of Shalit is not on their agenda, as they have "more important" things to deal with.

What does this tell us? I would say that it proves, once again, that Abbas will say whatever he thinks his interlocutors want to hear -- whatever will win him points, for the moment. That is, it proves, once again, that Abbas's word is worthless.

So, the real question now is how this affects future "summits" between Olmert and Abbas. Will Olmert publicly protest? Refuse to meet someone so prone to lying that it seems pointless? Doubt it very much.

~~~~~~~~~~

A personal experience of mine that I recall now sheds light on what is going on. Some 3 or so years ago, in the course of doing research on UNRWA, I had a specific question regarding how UNRWA operates. I had frequent contact with the man who headed the public information office of UNRWA here in Jerusalem. And so, I posed my question to him. "I don't know," he told me. At that point I realized I was not going to get an answer (i.e., he didn't want me to have the answer, as it did not reflect well on UNRWA). This was something he surely would have known -- one way or the other. "However," he assured me, "I will check with the appropriate department and get you an answer."

Needless to say, I received no answer from him. I wasn't expecting one.

But it happened one day that I went to attend a conference concerning the Palestinians, and this man was present. When he saw me walk in the door, he ran to me, and asked, "Did you get my e-mail?" No . . . "I sent you an e-mail today with the answer." What are the odds, I thought, that just on the day of this conference he happened to send me an e-mail. But, giving him the ever so slight benefit of the doubt, I checked my e-mail when I returned home. Of course, there was no message from him.

I was bewildered. Why, I asked someone with more experience in these matters than I had, why did he give me this particular lie, which would be exposed the moment I got home? Why didn't he tell me he tried and tried to get the answer for me and just couldn't? That lie would have held fairly indefinitely and would have shown he had the best of intentions.

It's in the culture, I was told. This is what they do. However, by the rules of the game I was not allowed to pursue this further, calling him to say I had received no e-mail and asking him what the answer was. That would have been all together too confrontational. It was a closed issue. That floored me at the time: that he could dispense with me so glibly. But now I see . . .

When the public information officer was face to face with me, he told me exactly what he knew I'd want to hear -- that he had the answer for me. By doing that he saved face while in contact with me -- he came across as someone who would deliver. Just as Abbas, on meeting Olmert face to face, gave him exactly what Olmert would want to hear, and thus saved face. And what happens thereafter, be damned.

~~~~~~~~~~

This is our strength and our pride: An analysis has been done of the preferences of new recruits about to enlist in the army. Almost 70% of them want to serve in a combat unit. The Golani Brigades, a very prestigious unit, was the choice of 30% of the recruits in spite of the fact that the Brigades took heavy losses in Lebanon over the summer. There were actually almost 3 recruits vying for every available spot in the Brigades. According to one officer, the war motivated the recruits and unified the nation -- there are no cases of people trying to avoid service.

But I see yet another factor very much in play. A large percentage of this month's recruits are from the hesder program: religious young men who spend part of their service time in yeshiva and part in the IDF. It has been noted consistently that religious soldiers comprise a relatively higher percentage of the elite forces and are more motivated. Their sense of purpose is stronger.

~~~~~~~~~~

Things are really going great in the PA areas:

-- In Gaza, masked gunmen have kidnapped Alan Johnston, a BBC TV reporter, grabbing him from his car.

-- In Judea (West Bank), near Tekoa, a woman was lightly injured when stones were thrown at her car.

-- Violence is increasing in Gaza between Fatah and Hamas. A branch of the Al Aksa Brigades (Fatah) says their leader escaped an assassination attempt.

-- Outside of Jenin, IDF troops were fired upon.

-- Three Hamas members suspected of having responsibility for a failed kidnapping of an Israeli citizen were caught near Ramallah. Two of the three had been released from Israeli prison, one recently and one last June. Please note.

~~~~~~~~~~

Fatah activists are calling for the lifting of parliamentary immunity for outgoing interior minister Said Saim (Hamas) in order to bring him to trial on charges of committing crimes against the Palestinians. Saim is spearheading action to prevent the unity gov't from taking place and the charges against him are many: He refused to dismantle the Hamas "Executive Force" death squads, and has arranged for the release of Palestinians arrested on suspicion of murder.

Khaled Abu Toameh of the Post predicts that this is going to complicate finalization of the unity gov't. But Haniyeh is saying all issues have been resolved and the gov't will be announced shortly.

~~~~~~~~~~

Yesterday, on Al-Jazeera, the second in command of al-Qaida, Ayman al-Zawahri, delivered a "eulogy" for Hamas, saying they have "fallen into the swamp of surrender" by signing a unity agreement with Fatah. They betrayed Palestine for a few seats in the government, he charged.

Today Hamas retorted with expected fury. The Hamas statement that was released should be noted carefully:

"All the land of Palestine is waqf (Muslim trust) land which no one has the right to give up. We will continue to be faithful to our principles regarding Palestine, the central issue of Muslims around the world."

This is the bottom line: All of Israel is Muslim land and religious principles forbid Jews to have it. The international community can stand on its head debating whether Hamas will recognize Israel de facto or recognize Israel's right to exist. Whether Hamas will moderate out of necessity. This is what Hamas believes and what it is dedicated to. All the rest is subterfuge.

~~~~~~~~~~

see my website www.ArlenefromIsrael.info

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